Manipulation of elections is neither new nor without peril. To get the GOP to dissipate their considerable resources on multiple candidates in the primaries Democrats have been encouraged to cross over and vote for Romney in the Michigan Republican Primary. Not voting for Hillary, as she is one of the few still on the ballot, Obama and Edwards dropped off the ballot, may diminish her momentum going into South Carolina, Nevada and then on Feb 5th, Florida, Texas, California and New York. Nevertheless, crossing over is a strategy worth considering.
The issues that are relevant to American voters in November 2008 may not be the issues relevant in November 2007: getting out of Iraq was the number one issue; maybe immigration was a distant second. January 2008, especially since the New Hampshire primaries, changed those priorities to the economy as numo uno. What I have observed over the last 30 years, that the economy trumps all other issues, sweeping incumbants out.
A historical look at well meaning and well spoken candidates, populism and oratorial splendor do not make for effective presidents. One only has to look at populist Jimmy Carter saddled with StagFlation being trounced by Ronald Reagan after one term in office. Jack Kennedy, Harvard educated, elected during a recession, eloquently lead us into Vietnam. Experience matters in getting things done on a Federal level.
Exit poles from New Hampshirites showed that the economy is the major issue. Exiting Iraq, immigration, health care reform, the war on Terrorism, foreign policy directions, tax breaks for the rich (the estate tax, capital gains tax, taxes on stock dividends), are secondary battlegrounds and may or may not play a role after the November 2008 presidential elections except as these issues are used as a club to batter individual candidates during the run-up to November.
Republicans want to see Obama as the Democratic nomanie as he is very weak on the economy and foreign affairs and is beatable if matched up with McCain or Guliani.
Its the economy. Ronald Reagan's landslide victory over Jimmy Carter (carrying Jim Dunn to one term in Congress) was precisely because of the economy: StagFlation, stagnant economic growth with escalating inflation. The interest rate on our Gilcrest home mortgage was 9.2% was typical. Unemployment nationally was 7+%, in Michigan > 8%, and in Detroit 15%. Union members voted overwhelmingly for Reagan. 12 years later, Bill Clinton won over a sitting, victorious in war president (never happened before) because of "R"ecession; hence: "Its the economy, stupid" slogan of that time.
The "R" word is now circulating in financial circles. Consumer Confidence, as measured by the U of Mich Index has plumeted. Unemployment nationally has crept above 5%. Republican leadership know that a Hillary victory would lead to a "Tax and Spend" Congress, just as Bill did; that the Evangelical Christians would stay away from the voting poles if there were ProChoice candidates, exacerbating the Congressional clout of the Democrats.
One of the reasons the Federal Reserve is talking about a steep interest rate cut is to forstall a recession. Avoiding a recession is paramount to getting a Republican elected. Nevermind that lower interest rates will ignite inflation (as most of the Regional Govenors have said.) Brinkmanship economics.
I believe that the Iraq War will not be on the voting American's mind by November. General Petreaus will have reduced the US Military presence in Iraq by June 2008; declared a victory which should last at least until November; and McCain will come out smelling like a rose having supported the "surge." "I make the right decisions even when they were unpopular at the time." "I have experience in world affairs........." Obama has no arguement to counter that position. He has not demonstrated, that is, done anything in foreign affairs except talk. Until very recently, he has not talked about nor has he enacted legislation regarding the economy. As I said, Obama is vulnerable on the economy and foreign affairs.
The Federal Reserve is about to ignite inflation, risking the economy to get a Republican president elected. No president, Democrat or Republican, will be spared the economic ravages after November. The only hope is that with a change in leadership, a recession occuring in the early part of a president's term of office, there will be a flurry of legislation (read the first 100 days ala FDR in 1933), and wait for the economy to rebound prior to the next presidential election. If the economy does not become robust, and if Obama has been busy writing legislation, supporting Hillary but staking out his own territory, he might challenge her in the primaries 4 year hence. He will have to do something visible, not necessarily dramatic, just addressing current issues and appear to have a competent understanding of the economy and foreign affairs. The basketball anology is: practice and make your foul shots, be an assist leader, no turnovers, while remain a team player. Later, he will get more playing time.
If I were Hillary, I would have Obama as my Vice President, essentially shelving him for 8 years instead of having to compete with him during the next primaries.
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