The coming of Spring; off again on again. March Madness

It snowed last night covering the grass and roofs. There was ice in the pot-holes in the road in front of us. Otherwise, the roads and sidewalks were clear. And, although it is really blue-sky sunny outside, it is still cold. Out of direct sunlight, the snow stays as evidence by the picture shot out the side of the sun room.

Last night we stayed up for the celebration of MSU men's basketball team achieving the Final Four to be held in Detroit this year. Sparty beat the number one ranked team in the nation: the Louisville Cardinals in the MidWest regional final game held in Indianapolis IN over the weekend. Kathy and I have tickets to the NCAA Final Four tournament, the first game is Saturday, April 4 th between MSU and University of Connecticut. Game time 6:07 PM. Kathy had the foresight to enter the lottery to get tickets last year some time, and we got our Final Four Tickets in October. With MSU now in the Final Four, the place will be packed with 72,000. Our seats are in the nose-bleed sections so we will bring binoculars. We will be there in our green and white cheering for Sparty. General Motors, who have a suite, decided not to use the suite after the private jet travel bruhaha in front of Congress a couple of months ago. I wonder now if GM is planning on raising capital by selling the seats in the Suite, or now hosting a couple of Congress persons as a bribe for Rick Wagoner keeping his job. I guess, since MSU and Villanova busted Obama's NCAA Basketball bracket Final Four participants, the Administration will not look kindly on anymore hanky-panky as MSU might beat U Conn and V might beat U of North Carolina which would completely mess up bracketology.

Coach Tom Izzo, for MSU, has put this game in Detroit on the same level as TARP in resuscitating the Michigan economy. All positive vibes. Imagine if you will the pressure on these kids playing basketball, playing in front of their friends and family, Michigan's economy on the line, with every defensive stop, basket and free-throw made. Not too much to expect would you say?

Emerging from hibernation

Winter has officially passed. Yesterday, at 7:44 AM, our sun crossed earth's equator, the vernal equinox, and so began our passage into more days of sun than darkness. Once the sun has reached its further Northern journey, the Tropic of Cancer, the Druids will dance in Stone Hedge and earth's longest Northern day will have arrived. It won't be until September 22nd that the sun will re-cross the equator, autumnal equinox, on its Southern trip. Pictured here is my Spring flower, Kathy, on her birthday March 20th, in Frankenmooth MI, in a garden, going from small shop to small shop, dabbling in items, purchasing some, as evening approaches.

Rich emerges from his winter slumber, grizzled, but willing to greet friends and be cordial to new acquaintances. Our day trip will be dwarfed by our impending schedule for April, May and June. It is amazing, looking at our calendar, where we are all planning on traveling. But first some Final Four ticket at Ford Field in Detroit, purchased in hopes that our Spartans will be amongst the participants.

Since last I wrote, Michigan State Beat U S C this evening, now they are in the Sweet Sixteen; they will play Kansas on Friday in Indianapolis. MSU must win two games in Indianapolis before traveling to Detroit and the Final Four. It is not so much do "we "believe, rather, do the players "believe." I think they do. Go Spartans.

The Ides of March

"Et tu Brute'? " Julius Caesar was warned and yet he came to give his "politically incorrect" speech at the Forum. And yes, his friend Brutus was amongst the conspirators. I am reminded of this affair, certainly on this date, as I read about many issues currently in the public forum, from the "bailout" of various economic institutions, to plans to change the very complexion of health care here in the USA. What troubles me most however, since I know so little about economics or national health care delivery, is the cavalier use of what is labeled "scientific evidence" to justify a particular strategy. Associations found between various events are being equated to causality; ie, cause and effect. "The reason why the government should......" Causality is invoked to pronounce prescriptions or remedies. So it was recently announced that after 10 years of project "Sure Start" in the UK, a comprehensive all age effort to effect the rising incidence of Obesity in one health district including several towns, after millions of Pounds Sterling spent, no impact. The National Health Service Director said the study was undertaken only after obtaining "scientific evidence" that the programs used were effective. Then why didn't the programs yield the outcome promised? Because, the "scientific evidence" was a product of a "consensus conference", a group think. Selection of the participants of the group predetermines the "consensus." The nominating committee is the real power behind the throne, behind the economic direction, behind the selection of the "science" used to justify a particular idea or event. So who is selecting the "science" to justify a Cap and Trade CO2 policy being advocated by our government? I think it is important to know since there will be far reaching ramifications and unforeseen costs. What is the "science" that is being put forward as justification for such a policy? Does it matter that the measured global temperatures were rising before the industrial revolution? Does it matter that CO2 rise, man made or otherwise followed the rise in measured global temperatures? Does it matter that as atmospheric CO2 continues to rise, that the last decade's global temperatures have actually declined? The hypothesis does not explain the historical measurements. Time for a new, improved hypothesis. I suggest, my family, that you Google " global temperature CO2" and choose the 2008 article "The Environmental Impact of Increasing Atmospheric CO2" by Robinson Robinson & Soon, from the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine, and read the article in its entirety. Certainly these authors were not invited to the table to discuss Anthropogenic Global Warming, or a Carbon Cap & Trade policy. There are many scientists who say the "science" is just not there to say what is being said publicly, stridently. They are not "deniers," they are skeptics; fair enough. By their comments, I don't think any of the authors I have read had voted for George Bush.

Besides Global Warming, there are many other instances where public policy is being shaped by media invoking "scientific evidence." Recently there was a report that after a 2 year comprehensive interventional effort to assess weight loss programs, high fat high meat, low fat, high carbohydrate, Mediterranean, South Beach diets, after 2 years, guess what? the only important factor leading to weight loss was decreased calories. All diets decreased weight and blood cholesterols during the dieting process, but after two years, the average weight kept off, was 4 pounds. Think of all the billions and billions of dollars spent on weight loss products, gyms, gurus, etc. and for a few million, the answer is: "eat less" if you want to loose weight. Eat less McDonalds, eat less vegetarian, eat less pasta and sauce. The media, "Supersize" and a host of other guilt "exposes" are just entertainment, otherwise, of no value. According to a recent survey, of the Top 10 most nutritious chain restaurants in the World, McDonalds comes in # 8. Who'd a thunk it? You can look up the survey and see who the raters were; surprising. Within hours of bariatric surgery for obesity, obese patients no long have Type II diabetes. Startling? You bet. Unexpected? Unexplained? Yes. So the next time you hear about obesity and the rising specter of a nation of diabetics, watch out. Observational studies do not give causality results. There is more to this issue than "fat people get diabetes."

There are other popular topics that have politically correct solutions: HIV&AIDS, home foreclosures, the education of inner city children, etc. etc. etc. "We can't just sit around and wait for the answer, we have to do something!" I don't mind trying something, intervening, make some sort of effort. If that is what one is doing, say so. We are trying this or that and we will assess the outcome in so many days, weeks, months, years. Just don't say there is "scientific evidence" behind what we are doing when all it is is a "consensus" of presumably knowledgeable people, hand picked for their particular viewpoint.

Too many times, what is "politically correct" has taken on a life of its own, and become the dogma, a religion with its own zealots. And we all know, from our Bill of Rights, our government shouldn't be messin' around with religion.

Friday the 13th

Last night, before going to bed, I turned the heat down, with the lights off, and awakened this morning to indoor temperature of 55 F. The over-night outside temperature was in the low teens. Ice that had all but melted, 6 to 8 inches of it from the previous 3 months, reformed on our Emerald Lake this morning, not half-a-foot of it, just a thin sheet covering the entire lake, a thicker slice close by in the shallower end. My eye was drawn to the new ice by a pair of Mallard ducks, trying to forge their way through the ice, breaking a path of open water.

Lake ice news peppers our print and electronic media. There is piece on the Michigan side of Lake Huron, where ice cubes, about one foot square, were driven through the East facing picture window of a lake front home. Mounds of similar sized cubes were piled in the home's yard; like an ice cube dispenser had dumped these blocks out of a bucket.

Nothing as dramatic for us. I am just noting how reluctantly Winter is in giving up its seasonal place to Spring.

I can hear the rain beating upon the skylights above me. It is early March, the snow has melted, all except the residual ice mounds left by the driveway snowplow, but the ice on the lake remains. We have had two snow melts in the past 2 months, mid-January and last weekend with a half-a-foot of snow in between melts. Our Emerald Lake is about as high as it gets and the other flood plain lakes in our wetland area are still at flood stage. After the last thaw, although the days were sunny and at times above freezing, the nights were in the single digits, night after night after night. The flood waters froze in place, so these great ice sheaths have frozen to the very edges of the shores. I presume our rain today will further melt the lake ice, although going from 6 to 8 inches thick to 2 inches still leaves a cover of ice, delaying the onset of spring, heralded as it is by geese coming to nest and breed. This morning I awakened to the honking of a pair of geese, walking the yard where a neighbor lady feeds the wildlife. The area has long ago been picked over, the deer it seems, no longer coming. So the geese, in their quest to obtain the choice nesting spot, have arrived but find no food, and most important to their safety and survival, no open water. They are gone now, they will have to wait for another time to return.

Kathy and I went on our 2 mile walk today, sheltered by our raincoats, one red the other orange, colorful, on a cloudy rainy day.

To put this all in perspective, I have been thinking of the cottage, Lake Huron water levels, and I am pleased to inform you, all who hopefully will be coming to the Cottage's 50th Anniversary, that with all the snow, the bitterly cold winter causing ice covering major portions of the Great Lakes, reducing evaporation which accounts for 95% of Great Lakes water loss, the Army Corps of Engineers predicts Lake Huron's August water levels to be 5 to 12 inches above last years, levels. Hopefully, the foot above last year is the real number; the island will be an island again, which it hasn't been for quite a while now. Grandkids can play in the in between shallows, still with their life jackets on, nevertheless, the water will be warmer, the bottom siltier and hence dig-able and they can get really dirty. Take them to the end of the island, dunk them in, and voila, clean again, ready for another round.

So, a dreary day with a bright forecast.